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Steel production has declined, and refractory material output is likely to follow the same trend in the first quarter.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2022, China’s crude steel output totaled 88.295 million tons, down 6.4% year on year; for the January–March period, cumulative crude steel production reached 243.376 million tons, a decline of 10.5% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries also stated that, to ensure policy continuity and stability and to consolidate gains in reducing crude steel output, nationwide efforts to cut crude steel production will continue in 2022. These measures will help achieve a year-on-year reduction in national crude steel output for 2022, guiding steel enterprises to abandon the extensive growth model focused on volume and promoting high-quality development in the steel industry. Based on crude steel production data, we can infer that refractory material output is likely to follow a downward trend as well. The main reasons are: (1) In the first quarter, overlapping environmental‑control measures during winter and spring, targeted enforcement periods, and the Lunar New Year holiday slowed the production pace of both steel and refractory manufacturers; (2) Since late February, the ongoing nationwide COVID‑19 situation, rising logistics costs, and transportation disruptions have hindered raw‑material procurement and finished‑product delivery, leading to inventory buildup for some products; and (3) Weak demand and rising production costs have kept trading activity at a subdued pace. Taking alumina—the key raw material for refractories—as an example, many alumina producers have operated at reduced capacity or with limited enthusiasm, driven by a combination of factors including higher raw‑ore prices and soaring fuel costs.

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